The continuation of fighting until Sinwar is eliminated, the hostages are freed, and Hamas is defeated—will constitute a total victory, and this is within reach.
Many of the same military officials and commentators who previously claimed that “Hamas is deterred” now assert that Hamas has been defeated.
According to them, its brigades, commanders, and parts of its leadership have been eliminated, and its “military” structure has ceased to exist.
At the same time, they do not deny the reality that our forces encounter armed terrorists daily and that rockets are still occasionally fired, including at Ashkelon. However, they firmly state that if we can create a political alternative to Hamas, the mission will then be complete.
This week, the IDF published a document sent by the Khan Younis brigade commander to Yahya Sinwar and his brother Mohammed in May of this year.
The letter indicated that although Hamas is in severe distress, it is still functioning at various levels and is working to recover and rearm.
Channel 11 reported earlier this month that the pace of Hamas’s recovery in Gaza, especially in the northern part of the strip, is “faster than the dismantling of its capabilities.” What is clear from the letter is that Hamas has not yet been defeated.
The letter describes the organization’s dire situation: “We have lost 90-95% of our rocket capability; we have lost 60% of our personal weapons; we have lost at least 65%-70% of our anti-tank capabilities; and most importantly, we have lost at least 50% of our fighters, and now only 25% remain.”
A Complex Reality on the Ground
While the document seems to show that the organization’s forces are in crisis, possibly on the verge of collapse, the reality on the ground is more complex:
- Hamas continues guerrilla warfare, operating from command and control centers disguised as civilian institutions such as humanitarian shelters, schools, and hospitals, which they have set up in the heart of civilian areas.
- The organization tirelessly works to refresh its ranks and recruit new activists, especially youth. Crime families and clans collect taxes, distribute humanitarian aid, and work for “public order” while receiving salaries from Hamas in return.
- Hamas is recovering, primarily in areas where the IDF is not currently operating, including the northern Gaza Strip, Khan Younis and Mawasi. Additionally, the organization has returned to the Shifa Hospital.
- Hamas continues to exploit the residents of Gaza, charging them about 20% of the humanitarian aid that enters the strip. According to estimates, Hamas has accumulated about half a billion dollars in this manner.
- Hamas uses brutal force on the population to instill fear, including public executions of thieves or those suspected of collaborating with Israel, as well as Gazans who dare to protest against Hamas rule.
In May 2005, then-Brigadier General Gadi Eisenkot wrote in his end-of-duty report as commander of the Judea and Samaria Division that “it is appropriate to remove the concept of strategic and systemic defeat from the terminology of the conflict.”
This did not prevent Benny Gantz from declaring that “Hamas has been defeated” just before he and Eisenkot left the cabinet and before the IDF entered Rafah and the Philadelphi Route.
In contrast, the war cabinet takes a different approach—a perspective aligned with the philosophy of the late Professor Yehoshafat Harkabi, former head of the Military Intelligence Directorate, who defined defeat as “a state in which the enemy’s capability has been eradicated, leaving him in a state of helplessness, and he surrenders” (War and Strategy, 1990).
General Douglas MacArthur, commander of US forces in World War II and the Korean War wrote about abandoning the idea of defeat: “There is no substitute for victory. Defeating the enemy is a moral and military necessity in which we must bring the enemy to a state of utter despair.”
Yehoshafat Harkabi was right: Despite the IDF’s impressive achievements, as long as Hamas retains the ability to harm Israel and hold our sons and daughters hostage, Hamas has not been defeated.
At this point in time, it is impossible to determine who might serve as a governmental alternative to Hamas.
What must be clear to whoever follows Hamas—and to any future governing mechanism, whatever it may be—is that the trauma and memory of the destruction caused by those who challenged our very existence and massacred our citizens and all their accomplices must be ingrained for generations to come.
The reality test proves that there will be no alternative—local, regional, or international—to Hamas until it is first defeated.
After Hamas is defeated, a worthy alternative can take shape. The defeat of Hamas (and Islamic Jihad), the only branch of the Muslim Brotherhood still in power in the Arab world, will strengthen the Abraham Accords, which are successfully passing the test of war in Gaza. Defeating Hamas will provide a crucial foundation for their expansion.
It is important to emphasize that military defeat alone is insufficient for Hamas. A psychological component must be added, in which Hamas loses both the ability and the will to continue the struggle.
Replacing the regime requires a complex and broad process incorporating elements of security, society, and economy. Only after these two goals are achieved can a stable and significant outcome be ensured, one that will affect the regional environment for many years to come.
The continuation of the fighting until Sinwar is eliminated, the hostages are freed, and Hamas is defeated—will constitute a total victory, and this is within reach.
Moshe Pozailov, Misgav Institute for National Security. Former senior Shin Bet official.
