“The United States is all in on Africa.”
Those were President Joseph Biden’s words during his recent trip to Angola, a southwestern African nation approximately the size of the land area of Alaska and home to nearly 40 million people.
I’d like to believe him, given that by 2050, one of every four people alive will be an African, but I’m having a hard time putting faith in his words—for three reasons:
- President Biden is late to the party, which has been on since 2013, with China the main host.
- President-elect Trump, with his “America First” attitude, doesn’t seem in the least interested in this party in the first place.
- The other giant trade player on the global scene—the EU—is. And the EU is active here.
Not much room left, is there?
21st Century Global Trade
In 2013, when China rolled out their Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which already has built
ocean and inland water ports, rail ports and transcontinental rail systems that link 150 countries that are home to two-thirds of the world’s population—reference is made to the “Modern Silk Road”—they sank their claws deep into the undeveloped and underdeveloped world, which amounts to approximately half the world’s nations, according to the United Nations’ categorization (developed, developing, underdeveloped, undeveloped).
A 100-Year-Old Model of Leadership Vision
Meanwhile, there is an eerie parallel—an historic repetition, if you will—to one of the monumental world changers, instituted by an American president almost exactly 100 years before the BRI, that should have guided the American leadership to be “all in on Africa” much sooner than this. Please read through and you’ll probably figure it out by the time you get to the end.
Back to the future, with clear plans to build ports, rail and roads, China made friends quite
easily, and when came time to finance all this, which most of the target countries couldn’t even
fathom, China was right there with its Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank.
Imagine the conversation going something like this: “Wanna build a rail, road and port
system that will connect you with the rest of the world?” “Of course you do, but you haven’t got the money?” “No problem; just sign here.”
Practical Global Alliances
And they did—en masse. And if you look at what a map of the globe will look like in 2049, the end game for the Chinese BRI plan, you see very few countries not involved, including many of America’s other major trading partners, like Canada, Australia and the BRICS alliance (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, and new nations aligned with the alliance, including Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, and the UAE)
What the consequences will be if nations default remain to be seen, but the term “loan shark” comes to mind. It’s more formally called a debt trap. What the rewards will be are also easy to see. Countries in a position to grow will do quite well; look at how effective the United States’ Marshall Plan was—for both the war-ravaged countries of World War II and for the United States. It’s why they are still allies of the U.S., 75 years later. China knows this. Keep in mind that (using United Nations data) only 21 countries have a GDP that exceeds Walmart’s annual revenue, which is pushing $700 billion.
Subsequent to post-war rebuilding, President John F. Kennedy said in his inaugural address (January 20, 1961), “Let all our neighbors know that we shall join with them to oppose aggression or subversion anywhere in the Americas. And let every other power know that this hemisphere intends to remain the master of its own house.” That was not just a military promise; it spawned decades of trade and American dominance. Every other western hemisphere country except one—Soviet-controlled Cuba—stood up and said their diplomatic version of “Yup, that goes for us, too.”
The American Century/The Chinese Century?
It was not by accident that the 20th century was dubbed “The American Century”—and rightfully so. For the same reasons and the same strategies, China seems intent on wresting that title away from the U.S.
And now, what was that American initiative that predated China’s BRI by 100 years? It couldn’t be more closely related: the Panama Canal.
Of course. But who seemed to get to that first? And whose century might this wind up being?
Career Coach Eli Amdur provides top-notch one-on-one coaching in job search, résumés, interviewing, career planning and executive development. Reach him at [email protected] or 201-357-5844.
