The results of the 2024 presidential election opened up new possibilities for Republicans around the country, but none were more pronounced than the opportunity in one of the most populous states — New Jersey. With its 14 electoral college votes, New Jersey is 11th in the nation and would be a huge prize for any future Republican hopeful. In order to make it a battleground state, however, Republicans need to double down on what worked to shift the state to the right.

While Jersey was safely in the blue map for Kamala Harris, it had the third most rightward shift of any state after California and New York. Joe Biden won the state by 15.9% whereas Kamala won by 5%, a massive 10.9% swing. In fact, Trump’s win in Arizona, a state that rejected him in 2020 and has been rejecting Republicans on the state level regularly for a few cycles, was a larger margin than Kamala’s win in New Jersey.

New Jersey has also had Republican governance more recently than its eastern neighbor. Republican Chris Christie was governor from 2010-2018. The current Governor, Phil Murphy, eked out a small victory in 2021 against Jack Ciattarelli by only a few points. Now that Murphy has been term-limited, the open gubernatorial seat will be hotly contested, with several candidates already declaring their intention in running next year.

For a Republican to win, they need to look toward what Scott Pressler, conservative activist and organizer, did in their western neighbor, Pennsylvania. Pressler dedicated this election cycle to registering voters, going from county to county and organizing teams to register Republicans. He flipped massive counties, registering truckers, hunters, the Amish and many more groups that are ideologically conservative but do not normally engage with politics. His efforts paid off. Trump won more votes in 2024 in Pennsylvania than Biden did in 2020 when all the rules changed to ensure massive turnout.

Passaic could be a model that the rest of the state could follow. It is a city that is 74% Hispanic, 15% Orthodox, and 7% black. In 2012, it went for Obama by 28%. It gave a 22% margin to Hillary Clinton in 2016. It went for Biden 16%. This year, it went for Trump 3%. That is a 31-point swing in four election cycles.

Looking at Bergen County, New Jersey’s most populated county, Joe Biden won it 57.5% to Trump’s 41.1%. In 2024, the race was much closer. Harris took 50.7% of the county and Trump earned 47.3%. Middlesex, the next largest county, had similar numbers. In 2020, it was Biden’s 60% to Trump’s 38% while 2024 was Harris at 52% and Trump at 45%.

It’s no surprise that these counties host some of the largest Orthodox Jewish communities in the state. Teaneck, Bergenfield and Fair Lawn are all in Bergen County, while Edison and Highland Park are in Middlesex. These areas have massive potential for Republicans, especially if Democrats continue to promote ideologies and policies that are antithetical to Jewish living. A Pressler-esque effort in these counties, focusing on low propensity voters in the Jewish and Christian communities, could flip them should the rightward trends continue.

Then there’s Ocean County, home of Lakewood. This county has exploded with population, and they voted for Trump by 63.5% and 67% in 2020 and 2024 respectively. Increasing the population and turnout in that county by registering more voters, including the newly 18-year- olds, will also have major benefits in any upcoming election.

It’s not enough for any future Republican candidate to just be anti-Democrat. Trump has shown that he can win large victories but historically Republicans lose when Trump is in office. That could be the failures of the RNC under the leadership of Ronna McDaniel, or it could be voter backlash to Trump’s presence in the White House. Either way, it would take a positive vision for New Jersey’s future to earn the votes needed.

First thing a Republican candidate can and should do is promise to expand funding for non-public schools. Unlike states like Ohio, Florida and Arizona, it is unlikely that Jersey would accept a full voucher program to establish true school choice. But that doesn’t mean that a gubernatorial or presidential candidate cannot make significant headway with the population by pushing for that funding to come back to families of non-public students.

Another move that a candidate can make is to work with the popular positions of other Republican leadership. In Nassau County, New York, the legislature passed and County Executive Bruce Blakeman signed a mask transparency bill, criminalizing wearing masks to hide identity during a protest. Gov. Ron DeSantis pledged to remove DEI from publicly funded institutions. Many leaders are rejecting sanctuary city status or increasing funding to police. Common sense is on the rise and the policies that go with it are also increasing. Candidates should not be afraid to embrace these positions, because they are winners.

All told, Trump flipped five counties in New Jersey this election cycle. That is highly encouraging and New Jersey Republicans should not take their foot off the gas. If they make the right moves, raise the right funds and work hard, this crucial state could become the next battleground area and eventually a bastion for responsible governance going forward.

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