Will Israel be expected to be the one bringing “hell” to Hamas? If so, how will that happen?

The Trump doctrine that is reforming the Middle East is focused primarily on Gaza. Since his inauguration, the president has been outspoken about bringing all the hostages home – and if Hamas doesn’t abide, then “all hell is going to break out.”

In recent comments, the president noted that what comes next is “Israel’s decision” and said that all the hostages should be returned by noon Saturday, February 15. If this didn’t happen, then “after that, I would say, all hell is going to break out.”

He spoke about canceling the deal that was agreed in January, which was supposed to see 33 hostages released in around 40 days. So far, just under half (16) have been released in five rounds, not including five unplanned Thai hostages. Trump says that if Hamas doesn’t release the hostages then “all bets are off.”

His statement follows several others about Gaza. When he was inaugurated in January, he had hinted that he felt Gaza was a demolition site and uninhabitable, and suggested that he doubted the hostage deal would make it to its final stages. The deal that was agreed to was supposed to have a second and third phase. Israel and Hamas were supposed to discuss these phases as phase one was underway. However, it seems that phase two discussions have not begun properly, and Hamas has threatened to stop releasing hostages.

It’s worth recalling that the Trump doctrine of “hell to pay” has been in the cards since his election. He said that there would be “hell to pay” back in December. He continued to be asked about his phrase in the lead-up to the inauguration in January. Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff was able to push with new urgency for a deal with Hamas; one began just before the inauguration.

The first hostages to be released were Romi Gonen, Emily Damari and Doron Steinbacher on Sunday, Jan. 19. Next came the four female IDF observer soldiers – Karina Ariev, Liri Albag, Daniella Gilboa and Naama Levy – released on Saturday, Jan. 25. They had been held for 477 days in Gaza. The releases were supposed to be every Saturday from then on.

Five days later, however, on Thursday, Jan. 30, Gadi Mozes, Arbel Yehoud, Agam Berger and five Thai citizens – Pongsak Thenna, Sathian Suwannakham, Watchara Sriaoun, Bannawat Seathao and Surasak Lamnau – were released. Then, as scheduled on Saturday, Feb. 1, Ofer Kalderon, Keith Siegel and Yarden Bibas were released. Most recently, Ohad Ben Ami, Eli Sharabi, and Or Levy were released on Saturday, Feb. 8.

However, there has been tension between Israel and Hamas during this period. In early February, between the fourth and fifth week hostage releases, Trump said that “the U.S. will take over the Gaza Strip – and we will do a job with it, too,” when he met with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

The president indicated that Israel would hand over Gaza to the U.S., but America would not put boots on the ground and regional countries would pay for multi-decade reconstruction. Around two million Gazans would be moved elsewhere and Trump said that new communities would be built for them.

Trump Commits to Buying And Owning Gaza

Days later, on the way to the Super Bowl after the fifth hostage release, Trump said, “I’m committed to buying and owning Gaza. As far as us rebuilding it, we may give it to other states in the Middle East to build sections of it.”

At press time, as Trump prepared to meet with King Abdullah II of Jordan, he continued to talk about a deal with Jordan and Egypt, raising pressure on them or other states to take in Gazans. “I’m talking about starting to build… and I think I could make a deal with Jordan. I think I could make a deal with Egypt.” Trump’s doctrine appears to be a mix of carrots and sticks in talks about who may take Gazans. He has hinted at stopping aid to Egypt and Jordan.

Meanwhile, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who is expected to visit Israel soon, has also slammed Hamas. He has called it “a group that needs to be eradicated,” according to an article at Ynet. He also discussed Gaza and how it needs to be cleared of debris and the detritus of war.

U.S. Ambassador-designate to Israel Mike Huckabee has also slammed the terrorist group recently, asserting that it won’t continue to exist in Gaza.

The question now, as Trump continues to press for his plan for Gaza, is how the “hell to pay” doctrine can come to pass.

Will Israel be expected to be the one bringing the “hell” to Hamas – and if so, how will that happen? Israel already fought the terrorist group for 16 months in Gaza and appears to have no plan, vision or strategy to remove it from the Strip.

U.S. officials seem to speak more about Hamas being removed than Israeli officials do. Many of them seem to accept Hamas running Gaza and there was no attempt in 16 months of war to remove it or replace it as a governing authority. This means that Trump may be expecting Israel to do something in Gaza that it doesn’t actually want to do. At that point, the Trump doctrine will run up against a different reality.

In some ways, the president’s statements were meant to stir things up and bring in new ideas for Gaza. However, if the countries reject new ideas and if Israel isn’t able to deliver on the Strip, then it’s unclear how the doctrine can move forward.

Seth J. Frantzman is the senior Middle East correspondent and analyst at The Jerusalem Post. He has covered the war against Islamic State, several Gaza wars, the conflict in Ukraine, refugee crises in Eastern Europe, and also reported from Iraq, Turkey, Jordan, Egypt, Senegal, the UAE, Ukraine and Russia since 2011.