It is unbelievable that an assassination attempt against Donald Trump would not be the biggest headline of the last few weeks. Yet here we are, and remarkably this makes sense with all that has happened this election season, from that jarring event, to the Republican National Convention, to President Joe Biden handing off the torch to Kamala Harris and her running mate.
However, let us refocus on that July 13 assassination attempt. In that moment we saw two universes before us: one with Trump in the presidential race, and one without. Polar opposite potential outcomes, each with significant repercussions for world history.
What is so astonishing is not only how different these two universes are, but also how tangibly close we were to experiencing either one. “Sometimes, history can come down to inches,” writes Deepti Hajela of the Associated Press. The bullet struck Trump’s ear and was only inches from a far more lethal outcome.
Several instances have occurred in the past where the slightest details can dramatically alter the trajectory of history. A simple accident, for example, can lead to catastrophe.
This was nearly the case in 1983, when Stanlisav Petrov, of the Soviet Union’s Air Defense Forces, was alarmed by a computer notification that five nuclear missiles were launched by the United States and heading in his direction. He only had a few minutes to make a decision, ultimately deducing that this was a computer error. Had he chosen to respond in that brief moment of enormous pressure and notify the commanders of a nonexistent attack from the U.S., a global nuclear disaster could have ensued. All because of a glitch.
Sometimes, however, mishaps have unfortunately produced dire consequences. When Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria was visiting Bosnia, there was a failed attempt on his life earlier in the day, and later that same day it was determined, as a security precaution, that they should take a different route than originally planned. The drivers of the motorcade instead made a wrong turn onto that original route, and as they paused to turn around, a co-conspirator seized the opportunity to kill the archduke and his wife. This assassination was a key factor that led to the start of World War I.
In these cases we were on the “hinge of history.” A turning point, whether it immediately and so clearly looked like one or not, that could have ended one way or another, sparking an entirely different reality in either direction.
In fact, it could be argued that we are on a “hinge of history” right now. At time of writing, this is anticipated to be an especially decisive and uncertain week, with outcomes that may be better known by the time you are reading this. In one reality, this could be the beginnings of a greater conflagration in the Middle East. In the other reality, this could be the beginnings of a longer-term calm stemming from a ceasefire-hostage deal. All of this as a high-stakes, neck-and-neck election day looms ahead as well.
That we are sometimes so close between dramatically varying outcomes is difficult to come to terms with, and it is an uncomfortable truth that seemingly trivial factors—from a few minutes, to a couple of inches, to one accidental wrong turn—can change everything. More broadly, this can create a crisis in our minds; obviously in our decision-making we cannot account for the impact of a wrong turn or the difference of minutes or inches. Some things, we must concede, are simply beyond our control. But how can we reconcile with this—the unsettling nature of chance?
Mark Rank, a professor of social welfare at Washington University in St. Louis, and author of “The Random Factor: How Chance and Luck Profoundly Shape Our Lives and the World Around Us,” observes to the Associated Press that “to some extent, we are in control. We do make decisions. But another aspect of life is that … there are things that happen to you that you have no control over.” He continues: “But that’s the way life plays out. That’s the world.”
We always try to plan for things. But we can never fully anticipate what life has in store for us, and what challenges and opportunities might come our way.
Something meaningful can help fill this void, however: belief in the divine. Recognition that we are part of something much bigger than ourselves. Understanding that some things are meant to be. That God has a plan. Sometimes we may just have to resign ourselves to such a concept of “chance.”
As the Israelites left Egypt, they were stuck not exactly between a rock and a hard place, but rather between the Egyptians who were chasing them and a vast Red Sea. The story has it that Nachshon ben Aminadav was the first to jump into the sea, putting complete faith in God’s ability to conjure, out of that sea, a way forward to escape from the army pursuing them.
In addition to the merits of being an observant Jew are the applicable rewards that come about from this kind of faith. Under this light, an event unfolds the way it does not because of chance at all, but because it was deliberately designed that way. It was meant to be.
As we wrestle with the mystifying phenomenon of chance in our personal and collective lives, we should be thankful for that which has worked out, and that which could have turned out far worse. If just a couple of inches can make a world of difference, who knows what kinds of opportunities and fortunes we are blessed with?
Alan E. Weintraub holds a master’s degree in history and an advanced certificate in public history. He is also a genealogy researcher and advanced chess player. Thoughts are welcome at [email protected].
