Hillel Kovrinsky, a close confidante of finance minister Yair Lapid has hinted that Lapid has begun preliminary explorations with other parties regarding a parliamentary reshuffle aimed at building a new coalition with himself as Prime Minister.
Lapid and Hatnuah (6 seats) leader Justice Minister Tzippi Livni already have a collaborative relationship, and most of the time they speak in one voice at cabinet meetings.
According to a scenario being bandied around the Knesset, such a coalition would include Labor (15), Meretz (6), and Avigdor Lieberman’s Israel Beiteinu (13) party, which has already abrogated its joint list agreement with the Likud, and is once again an independent party. Together these parties muster 58 seats.
If either one of the Ultra-Orthodox parties joins up, this coalition would have a parliamentary majority and could bring down the government and form a new one without new elections. The Ashkenazi UTF (United Torah Front) has always been a traditionally dovish party, and would not oppose a settlement freeze, since most of the Ultra-Orthodox towns over the Green Line are within the “consensus settlement blocks adjacent to the Green Line.
Arye Deri, who has taken firm control of Shas from his rival Eli Yishai is much more moderate than Yishai, and unlike him has a good relationship with the leaders of Israel’s Arab community. Although both Lieberman and Lapid vetoed Netanyahu’s attempts to send out feelers to the Ultra-Orthodox, they would probably agree to sit with them if it meant a new government without the Likud.
Even without the Ultra-Orthodox, Lapid could still pull it off by breaking all historical precedent and bringing the Arab parties into the coalition. Alternately he could reach agreement with them in which they would support his minority 58/120 seats) government from outside, in returns for increased (and long overdue) funding for Arab municipal authorities, which are woefully under-budgeted (for every shekel of public funds going to a Jewish citizen, less than half a shekel goes to an Arab citizen. While Meretz and Lieberman have also refused to sit together in the same coalition, this too could change. Meretz leader Zahava Galon would also come under intense pressure if she was preventing replacing Netanyahu. Lieberman is in a class of his own when it comes to being a cynical opportunist, even by Israel’s jaded standards.
Labor leader Itzhak (Buzi) Herzog is less than enthusiastic about the plan, as he too harbors prime ministerial ambitions. However was he to be the last obstacle preventing replacing Netanyahu, he would come under intense pressure from both his party and much of the country’s cultural and economic elite, which tends to be somewhat left of center and supports the two state solution.
The fact that Lapid is reacting so calmly to Likud attempts to blackmail him over the budget by threatening to bury bills he has put his reputation on suggests Lapid’s machinations may have advanced further than idle talk.
By Yoni Ariel/www.jerusalemonline.com
