There’s a scene in the movie Loopers where Joe, a character from the present time, announces that he is studying French for use later in life. Another character, Abe, who has traveled back in time from the future, suggests that Joe go to China instead. The following debate ensues:

Abe: Why the [expletive] French?

Joe: I’m going to France.

Abe: You should go to China.

Joe: I’m going to France.

Abe: I’m from the future. You should go to China.

Joe ends up going to China and his life turns out better for it. The lessons illustrated by this example? People tend to pay attention to people from the future, and usually benefit from doing so.

The Birth of a Futurist

I became a futurist quite by accident and over time. My first exposure was nearly a quarter century ago when I spoke at the annual meeting of the World Future Society. My panel covered the future of the legal system; I spoke about arbitration.

What impressed me most was one of the lunch speakers, who talked about biotechnology breakthroughs to come. Frankly, he didn’t impress me very much at the time; I actually thought he was somewhat mad. What eventually did impress me was that pretty much everything he predicted would happen tended to actually happen, more or less when he said it would. What really impressed me was when I made money by investing in the companies leading the charge on these inventions and breakthroughs.

As the years rolled by, I realized I actually had skills as a futurist, because I could often see the shape of things to come. I soon became the resident futurist at work, and started to publish articles on what I thought we be happening in my field in the future.

“You Should Go to China”

One very effective teaching tool I use is giving a presentation as though I have been to the future and have returned to the present to report about it, just like Abe from Loopers. Last June I gave a presentation at the first-ever alternative dispute resolution (ADR) ExecuSummit, titled “Consumer Arbitration: a Report from the Future.” In it, I reported on developments that took place between now and 2018. The presentation was very well-received, and I honed it over time in presentations to other groups, such as the Securities Experts’ Roundtable (A Report from the Future—Securities, Consumer and Employment Arbitration), and the Seton Hall Law School securities arbitration clinic. Last fall, I moderated for the American Arbitration Association a webinar called “ADR and Emerging Technologies: the Future Has Arrived” during which the panel closed by predicting the impact of emerging technologies on alternative dispute resolution. Once again, the participants paid attention.

I think audiences are receptive to this technique because, once you establish your credentials by noting past predictions that came to pass, and you establish your sanity by making clear that you don’t really think you are from the future, what you have to say becomes fun and informative and worth listening to. As a presenter, I love the technique because, while someone on the panel or in the audience can disagree with me, they cannot definitively say I am wrong—unless they claim to be from the future (in which case they will lose the audience in a hurry).

The Report Card Two-Step

Another effective teaching technique is what I call the “Report Card Two-Step.” Here, you get the reader’s attention by looking back at how well you did on past predictions and then offer prognostications for the future. I just authored a scholarly work called “Technology, Alternative Dispute Resolution, and the Insurance Industry: The Future Has Arrived (Really This Time)” that will be published this spring in the Journal of American Law. Over 20 years ago I evaluated emerging technologies and predicted how they might impact ADR. Four years later, after the emergence of the internet, I updated my predictions to gauge the impact of this new medium. Now a board member of Arbitration Resolution Services, Inc.(“ARS”)—the world’s first completely cloud-based ADR provider—I measure what really happened and predict the future of emerging technologies on ADR in general and on insurance industry ADR in particular. The paper discusses:

• The past: How accurate were prior predictions about email, imaging, electronic fund transfers, computerization, and the “new” fax technologies? What other unforeseen technologies—like the web, digital audio recording, Wi-Fi, mobile apps, and videoconferencing—came upon the scene and impacted the ADR world?

• The present: How is technology being used to improve the delivery of ADR services today in the insurance industry? What is the impact on the arbitration and mediation processes?

• The future: Where will we be ten years from now? Will cloud-based arbitrations and mediations overtake “brick and mortar” case filings? Will the in-person hearing become a thing of the past? What new technologies will emerge and how will they impact ADR?

An Outlet for My Futurist Tendencies

More than 15years ago, I made the following prediction: For years, commentators have predicted that the future would bring the benefits of online technology to our paper-laden method of resolving disputes. The future, quite clearly, has arrived.

I think what attracted me most to join the ARS Board was that it give me an outlet for my futurist tendencies. By that, I mean that 20 years ago I could see how technological developments would transform arbitration and mediation. ARS is actually doing all these things—like a completely online system for resolving disputes—that I predicted would happen. A cloud-based approach to ADR, with the attendant convenience, simplicity, and dramatically reduced costs, brings arbitration and mediation within reach of the masses.

In my view, the best teaching tool is being right about the future. Why? Because people pay attention when you’ve been correct about things to come. And they can benefit from doing so. You should go to China!

George H. Friedman teaches arbitration at Fordham Law School and is a Board member of the Arbitration Resolution Services, Inc. He is former EVP- Dispute Resolution of the FINRA. He is a member of the Securities Experts Roundtable and of several bar associations. He is past chair of the ADR Committee of the New York County Lawyers Association.

By George Friedman