The Jewish vote has never been more important or more scrutinized. A quick Google search of the “Jewish vote” turns up article after article about our small community’s potentially outsized influence.
According to the Jerusalem Post, only 63% of American Jews intend to vote for Kamala Harris—the lowest level in four decades. The Orthodox Union’s poll in August showed similar results, with support for Harris and Donald Trump nearly split down the middle in Pennsylvania. It’s clear Democrats can’t take the once reliable Jewish vote for granted.
At the presidential level, Jewish voters could be decisive in swing states where polling shows the race too close to call. In critical Pennsylvania, with its 19 electoral votes, 300,000-plus voting age Jews are more than triple Joe Biden’s narrow 81,000-vote margin of victory in 2020. In Georgia, where Biden eked out a victory by a mere 12,000 votes, more than 100,000 Jewish voters could have a similar impact.
Even in perennially blue New York and New Jersey, down-ballot races could determine who controls the House of Representatives. After all, the GOP majority hangs by the thinnest of threads. Democrats only need a net four-seat change to crown Hakeem Jeffries Speaker. Consider some of the races—and Jewish communities—that may determine the next Speaker of the House.
In 2022, Republican Mike Lawler won his swing seat comprising parts of Rockland and Westchester counties by fewer than 2,000 votes. There are more than 2,000 Jewish votes in Monsey, New York.
New York’s 4th Congressional District is home to central and southern Nassau County, including Jewish communities in Long Beach and West Hempstead. It is currently held by a Republican, but Joe Biden won the district by 14 points in 2020.
Across the river, Republican incumbent Tom Kean Jr. is locked in a tough reelection fight in New Jersey’s 7th Congressional District (Union, Essex, Morris, and Somerset counties) after winning his seat by 2.8 percentage points in 2022.
Winning these seats and a handful of other toss-up races in 2022 gave Republicans control of the House. Two years later, these battleground races will be just as important.
In addition to specific races, the Jewish vote is garnering extra attention this year. Despite our relatively small population, American Jews have a proud tradition of playing an active role in the electoral and legislative process. This past summer, the Jewish vote in Westchester County played a big role in defeating the antisemitic congressman, Jamaal Bowman. With antisemitism at record-breaking levels and Israel fighting for its survival, there will be even more attention paid to our turnout numbers.
This matters because political actors listen to the loudest voices in the room. It’s up to American Jews to keep making noise. The best way to get Washington’s attention is to show up. Show up in unprecedented numbers. Show up and exercise your privilege as an American voter. Show up to protect our constitutional right to live freely and openly as people of faith. As protestors march on college campuses with signs that say “Go Back to Poland,” show up to remind the Hamasniks that we’re not going anywhere.
We are blessed to live in a country whose founding ideals enshrine freedom of religion and equality before the law in our Constitution. Show up to defend these noble ideals. Show up and vote.
Nathan J. Diament is the executive director for the Orthodox Union Advocacy Center.
