December 23, 2024

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Does Iran Have 5x the Number of Advanced Centrifuges Than Admitted?

TIP–A range of stories published over the weekend and into Tuesday indicate that Iran is preparing to expand its declared plutonium program and has not yet accounted for a potentially vast clandestine uranium enrichment program, with new analysis suggesting that the latter may exceed the entirety of Iran’s previously known capacity. The Sunday Times this weekend quoted International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) veteran and a former deputy director of the UN watchdog Olli Heinonen as saying it was possible that Tehran is in possession of five times the advanced IR-2M centrifuges than previously disclosed.

Remarks made by Heinonen on a conference call with The Israel Project on Tuesday to the effect that the additional next-generation centrifuges would among other things shorten the amount of time it would take Iran to achieve breakout. The allegations are likely to deepen calls for a final deal between Iran and the P5+1 powers to include a robust verification system, and for the Islamic republic to come clean about its past weapons work. An IAEA report leaked on Friday declared that Iran was still denying the agency access to sites where military-related atomic work is thought to have taken place, threatening any post-deal verification regime: The IAEA needs to benchmark the full scope of Iran’s program now, so that all components of the program can be built into an agreement which the IAEA will monitor following an agreement.

Meanwhile, Russia announced on Tuesday–less than two weeks before the deadline for the West to reach an agreement with Iran–that Moscow and Tehran had signed a deal to build up to eight new nuclear reactors in the Islamic republic, in what Iranian nuclear chief Ali Akbar Salehi called a “turning point in relations” between the two countries. Russia and Iran had in September announced major trade initiatives that were at the time described as a way for Tehran to dodge Western sanctions pressure.

 

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