In these COVID times, speculation is running amok. How long will schools stay open? Will there be an effective and safe vaccine by year’s end? Will camps be open in 2021? Will backyard simchas in January result in freilich frostbite?
It is very difficult to predict how things will unfold because, at this point, it’s all just guesswork. Pundits and politicians can postulate and pontificate all they want but if they really had all of the answers, they would be high-rolling it in Las Vegas, cashing in on their clairvoyance.
Speaking of Vegas, guessing and gambling are relatively similar to the extent they both are based on assessing the odds. According to most experts, the term ”odds” is defined as the probability that an event will occur divided by the probability that the event will not occur. In turn, the probability that an event will occur is the fraction of times you expect to see that event in multiple trials. If the probability of an event occurring is X, then the probability of the event not occurring is 1 minus X, e.g., if the probability of a Jew eating at least one prune Hamantaschen on Purim is 0.30 (30%), then the probability that the event will not occur is 1 minus.30 = 0.70, or 70%. Extending this example, the probability of a hamantaschen-eating Jew eating an apricot, poppy-seed or chocolate hamantaschen on Purim is probably 1 minus.10 =.90 or 90%. The more interesting question, however, pertains to the odds of a Jew eating any variety of hamantaschen during the rest of the year. Clearly, the odds cannot be 0% because most kosher bakeries offer hamantaschen year-round and they cannot possibly be doing so solely for practice.
This raises a related question: what are the odds of a Jew eating apples and honey during the year other than on Rosh Hashanah? In this case, a very strong argument could be made that the odds are 0%. Why? While there is no prohibition against eating apples and honey before or after Rosh Hashanah, Jews likely avoid doing so to keep Rosh Hashanah consumption special. If that is true, then why wouldn’t the same reasoning apply to Purim with respect to hamantashen consumption? Why the double-standard?
Less surprising odds are those applicable to Jews eating kosher-for-Pesach products before and after Pesach. The odds of a Jew eating kosher-for-Pesach pizza after Pesach are about as low as the odds of a Jew electing to continue the Yom Kippur fast long after the Shofar has sounded.
Sometimes, of course, events defy the odds. What were the odds of Israel and the United Arab Emirates establishing full normalization of relations? Such odds had to be low but now have been defied. What were the odds of Saudi Arabia announcing that it will allow flights from Israel to the United Arab Emirates to fly through Saudi Arabia’s air space? Once again, the odds have been defied. Does this mean that the odds of complete and total peace among all nations in the Middle East have significantly increased? That is unclear but events may be trending in that direction. As most recently reported, hotels in the United Arab Emirates will start accommodating Jewish guests by offering kosher food at hotels and other luxury facilities. That certainly is a wonderful step in the right direction but don’t expect a Chabad house to open in Tehran in the very near future.
While some odds are ever-changing, perpetually fluctuating to account for developments as they unfold, other odds are far less likely to waver. For example, the odds remain relatively low that the average Jew will:
- 1. not make more than one trip to an all-you-can-eat buffet (To do so would be a shanda!);
- 2. not know someone who knows someone else who knows you in this very “small Jewish world” (In other words, no Jew has ever lost a game of Jewish Geography);
- 3. not kvetch about something at least once a week;
- 4. not have and express an opinion, regardless of whether it is solicited or desired; and
- 5. not, when calling their parents, be greeted with: “I haven’t heard from you in a long time. Is everything o.k.? Where are you? Are you sick? Have you eaten? What aren’t you telling us? What did we do that was so wrong to deserve this?” (Incredibly, this applies to all Jews no matter how frequently they call their parents, including those who call every single day.)
Final thought: To most food-obsessed Jews, the betting term “over/under” sounds more like an evaluation on how poorly a piece of meat has been cooked.
By Jon Kranz
