Taken together, the possible elimination of Deif and the death of Haniyeh are serious setbacks for Hamas and the Iranian-backed terror axis.

Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was killed in the Iranian capital of Tehran, Hamas said on July 31. His death comes almost 10 months after Hamas carried out the October 7 attack on Israel. While some are already viewing the killing of the Hamas terror leader as an escalation, the reality is that his death is a small amount of justice for the crimes of October 7.

The death of Haniyeh came hours after Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr was killed in Lebanon. These are serious blows to Iran’s axis of terrorist groups.

Haniyeh had flown to Tehran to attend the swearing in ceremony of Iran’s new president Masoud Pezeshkian.

Haniyeh met with Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on July 30 in a meeting that the Iranian regime publicized. Alongside Haniyeh was Palestinian Islamic Jihad leader Ziyad Nakhaleh. Nakhaleh had arrived from Damascus. Haniyeh and Nakhaleh may have felt comfortable and safe in Tehran. Haniyeh was seated closest to the Ayatollah on a couch with Nakhaleh. Nakhaleh is seen sitting back slightly, distancing himself from Haniyeh. Perhaps Nakhaleh sensed that he should keep his distance from the Hamas leader, who would be killed less than a day later.

In Tehran on July 30, the Hamas terror leader was not the only major terror mastermind gathered to meet the Iranians. The Deputy Secretary General of Lebanon’s Hezbollah Movement, Sheikh Naim Qassem was also in Tehran. He met with Pezeshkian. The new Iranian president vowed to support Hezbollah and the various Iranian-backed groups that have been attacking Israel.

“Pezeshkian made remarks on Monday night during the meeting with Ziad al-Nakhalah, the Secretary General of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad Movement who has traveled to Iran to participate in the presidential inauguration ceremony.” The Iranian leader’s comments focused on the need to unify Muslim countries against Israel.

Haniyeh traveled to Tehran believing that Hamas is still in the driver’s seat of regional conflicts in the wake of October 7. For instance, Hamas recently sent a delegation to China to discuss unity with other Palestinian factions. Hamas has been working with Moscow towards achieving other goals in the West Bank where it wants to come to power and weaken the Palestinian Authority. Hamas believes that it has been able to outmaneuver Israel in Gaza by continuing to control areas in central Gaza. It has also hardened its stance on a hostage deal, believing that it can get concessions from Israel.

Hamas leaders reside in Doha and they are likely advised by Doha not to bend to Israeli pressure.

Regional Support for Hamas

Since October 7, Hamas has also received support from Turkey. Turkey’s president recently threatened Israel and claimed Ankara might intervene militarily to oppose Israel. All of this would have been good news for Haniyeh, who felt safe and privileged.

Haniyeh likely knew there were some risks involved in travel. Saleh al-Arouri, a Hamas terror leader who resided in Lebanon was killed in Beirut in January. The loss of Arouri was a setback for Hamas but Hamas has increased its role in Lebanon in recent years. It continues to threaten Israel from Lebanon, Gaza and the West Bank. Hamas suffered another setback in mid-July when Israel targeted Rafa’a Salameh, a Hamas brigade commander in Gaza. Hamas commander Muhammed Deif was also with Salameh. Over the weeks since the attack, there is increasing belief that Deif was also killed.

Taken together, the possible elimination of Deif and the death of Haniyeh are serious setbacks for Hamas and the Iranian-backed terror axis. Deif and Haniyeh were two of those the International Criminal Court was seeking indictments against for October 7. The third man is Hamas leader in Gaza, Yahya Sinwar. In essence this may save the ICC some paperwork as justice came early for two out of three.

Hezbollah is also suffering losses. Muhammad Nimah Nasser, who was the head of Hezbollah’s southern Aziz unit was killed in July and Taleb Sami Abdullah, head of the Hezbollah Nasr unit, was killed in an airstrike June 11. This basically represents the killing of the two southern division commanders of Hezbollah. Wissam Tawil, a senior Hezbollah commander was killed in an airstrike in January.

The key coordinator for Iran in ties with Hezbollah and other proxies was also killed earlier this year. Mohammad Reza Zahedi, an IRGC commander was killed on April 1, 2024 in an airstrike on a building next to the Iranian consulate in Damascus. Iran blamed Israel and carried out an attack with more than 300 drones and missiles on April 13-14.

Seth J. Frantzman is the senior Middle East Correspondent and analyst at The Jerusalem Post.