Crimea—Fluid is just one way the situation in Ukraine has been described by some U.S. government sources, while others refuse to say anything about how the U.S. response in eastern Europe is viewed in that part of the world, let alone how that response affects the U.S. image and influence in the Mid-East. According to Malcolm Hoenlein, Executive Vice President of the Conference of Presidents of American Jewish Organizations, it’s too soon to tell.
When JLBC asked J Street, which advertises itself as “The Political Home for Pro-Israel, Pro-peace Americans,” and seems to keep in touch with what could affect American policy in the Middle-East, wJessica Rosenblum, Communications Director said the Ukrainian crisis was not in their area of concern. “We haven’t thought about it,” she replied.
Here’s a hint of what’s going on: The U.S. sends F-16 fighter jets and 300 support troops to Poland in response to live fire exercises being conducted by Russian troops in Kaliningrad and the Baltic Sea, and as a reaction to the inspection of 150,000 troops across the border. NATO countries are meeting to consult over perceived security threats. Lithuanian President Dalia Grybauskaite, fearing Russian aggression, is reaching beyond Ukraine, saying “With smaller countries, it’s either total obedience or you’re an enemy. There is no desire to recognize others as equals, but rather various means are used to pressure other countries, economically and politically.” And President Obama is talking about sanctions. Some pundits have said Vladmir Putin, Russia’s President, has given up his right to veto on the UN Security Council.
Jews have been clamoring in synagogues and Chabad centers, joined in mutual anxiety, exchanging news and views, despite opposing political leanings. Veterans of the IDF living in Ukraine who are fighting for the Euromaidan (rebel forces) in the shadow of Baba-Yar claim any antisemitism is purely media hype. Jewish students wounded by former government police troops are shipped to Israel for medical treatment unavailable in Kiev due to the decimation of resources. Russia says antisemitism should not be a force within the conflict, yet there are a few reports reaching the West that Jews are being blamed, in more ways than one, for the situation.
Hoenlein, in a conversation with JLBC late last week, said it’s tense for everyone and especially the Jews. “I’ve spoken to people there who say they don’t go out at night, there are food shortages. They’re being assisted with security for their institutions but individuals don’t have it. But there has not been really any kind of wide spread anti-Jewish activity.”
He said there were some isolated incidents but nobody there seems to indicate that they are concerned. “But there you never can tell what could explode, what could trigger some reaction on the part of the radicals and the right wing or extremist troops groups that are there—and they are there.”
On Sunday news reports from the Middle East were not encouraging. Where there were hints in the media that the PA would accept Israel as a Jewish state, that changed. “The council of the Arab League confirms its support for the Palestinian leadership in its effort to end the Israeli occupation over Palestinian lands, and emphasizes its rejection of recognizing Israel as a Jewish state.” Two weeks ago, Senator John McCain asked AIPAC (American Israel Public Affairs Committee): “Why do we care (about Ukraine)?” And answered: “Because this is the ultimate result of a feckless foreign policy where nobody believes in American strength anymore.”
Hoenlein did take a stab at framing how America’s actions in the Ukraine might affect the influence and image of the United States in the Middle-East. “It all depends on the outcome. If the West is once again shown not to be resolute, it will further undermine and erode credibility with many of the countries in the Middle East. We also don’t know what Russia’s reaction to whatever actions we’ll be taking will be. It could affect the talks on Syria or Iran.”
Asked if he thought Russia will attempt to use what’s happening in Ukraine to affect policy in the Middle East, Hoenlein said he didn’t think they could affect it except indirectly. “If there’s a real split with the West it could undermine the efforts to reach a peace agreement with Syria or the G5+1 (five permanent UN Security Council members plus Germany) talks on Iran, if that’s the direction he (Vladmir Putin) intends to take. He may withdraw his cooperation (with the U.S.) on Syrian issues, especially the withdrawal of the chemical weapons.
“On the other hand he might want to show the world that he’s really cooperative and will not do anything to undermine those talks. So a lot will depend what happens in the next days. I think it’s too early to tell what the ramifications will be.”
Some talking heads are saying the U.S. relationship in Eastern Europe is similar to its relationship with the Middle-East—since Syria has oil and Russia is supplying one third of the natural gas used by the European Union. But Hoenlein said Syria does not have enough oil to make a difference.
“I’d compare it to Egypt with their election and American policy towards Egypt as opposed to the election in Ukraine. There have been other analogies but I think these situations are really unique, although in today’s world, everything is interrelated so there’s a lot of potential impact—from the West and Putin.
Because the perception of power is almost as vital as power itself, Hoenlein felt if the West is perceived to be toothless by not taking a strong position, that weakness would encourage others to do what they like. “You’ll find more aggressiveness perhaps by China (concerning sovereignty over two islands, Kita-Kohima and Minami-Kojima, midway between Taiwan and China) or by Iran, because they think that the West is not going to do anything to stop them.
Hoenlein said that while many of these situations seem to be stable, it’s only so because of the balance of power. “Anyone of these situations can be exploited if people feel they can get away with it.” He said if missiles can be launched at Israel and no one pays a price, if Iran can execute scores and scores of people each month, they can send missiles to Hamas and there’s no price to pay chaos would ensue. “The same thing is true everywhere. Why would anybody be deterred from taking aggressive action when they think there’s no price?”
Asked what the U.S. can do at this point, Hoenlein said there are economic sanctions, taking Russia out of the G8 (eight wealthiest nations of the world) and denying visas to citizens of aggressive nations. “Maybe we should send some ships into the Black Sea. I think it should be some show of credibility if they see we’re prepared to defend the people. I would not want to see a military confrontation. But there has to be some credibility to our leanings if Putin is to take us seriously.”
A fighting war does not seem to be under consideration, but an economic war is being pushed by many. What’s said and not being said brings reminds baby boomers of the the Cold War. Sons, brothers, and husbands were fighting and dying by proxy in little publicized and less-known bush wars around the world while the U.S. and or Russia, then the U.S.S.R. (United Soviet Socialist Republic) kept their hands “clean.”
Steve Sandberg, Press Secretary to U.S. Senator from New Jersey, Robert M. Menendez, Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee told JLBC. “What we thought was happening last week—even earlier this week—has changed considerably. It’s hard to frame (an answer) when we don’t necessarily have all the facts, especially all the facts that will be in play.”
By Anne Phyllis Pinzow
