Polls have never been this consistently close. Virtually every independent or non-partisan poll shows a tie within its margin of error. For example, as I write this, a major poll shows Mr. Trump ahead of Ms. Harris by 0.34%, with the margin of error at 3.1%.
We all know about the usual factors that influence elections: major issues such as the economy, immigration and abortion, or frequently discussed topics like fundraising levels or third party candidacies. Unique to this election are a multitude of issues that might swing this very close election one way or another, such as the following:
This year there are seven “swing states,” fewer than ever before, and they’re all incredibly close in the polls.
Top-quality polling has been inaccurate during this past decade. Polling is far from simple. Pollsters must adjust their numbers based on factors such as the attributes of a population compared with the people their poll manages to reach; assessing who will actually vote or not; each group’s willingness to be polled; and reporting honesty, etc. New factors that flummox pollsters include fast-changing laws and voting methods; shifting news and opinion sources; a charismatic candidate who mobilizes voters on both sides; COVID’s aftereffects; social media’s trend toward polarization; and questions of voter suppression or inequality, etc.
In the past two elections, the Republican party strongly discouraged early voting, absentee voting and ballot drop boxes. Today, the party is supportive of early voting and absentee voting, although some Republican candidates nevertheless continue to disparage those methods. No one knows how voters will respond.
There is controversy whether “Get out the vote” (GOTV) campaigns affect results significantly or not. That said, this year Democrats are funding an extensive GOTV campaign. Republicans are running their GOTV via two large PACs rather than directly, so it remains to be seen whether that will be a success or a misfire.
The pro-Palestinian Arab “uncommitted” voters will likely have a huge effect in Michigan. Their 100,000 typically Democratic votes can certainly affect that swing state’s outcome. This voting bloc may be somewhat sensitive to last minute policy announcements by the administration, such as recent pressure on Israel for more aid deliveries to Gaza.
Foreign interference is up according to the FBI, NSA and DOJ. This year’s external attempts to sway the vote are far more difficult to find, prove and block than in previous years, since foreign funding is now often channeled to “influencers” within the U.S. who have clear First Amendment rights to free speech. China is encouraging disinformation about Israel and otherwise favoring Democrats. Russia (e.g. “Russia Today”) is funding disinformation about Ukraine and immigration, favoring Republicans. Iran is trying to hack the GOP’s computers, among other evil actions.
Black voters, particularly males, are beginning to move to the Republican party. Even if the trend seems slight (a 90:10 ratio shifting to 80:20) it is enough to offset Democratic leads in several states. The Hispanic vote is also shifting, from 3:1 tilting Democratic in 2016, to 2.3:1 in 2020, although some see opposing trends this year. The candidates of both parties are actively pursuing disaffected voters in the others’ traditional voting blocs.
Red states are growing and blue states are shrinking. In a few years the Electoral College may see a dozen seats shift from blue to red. There are also shifting patterns of voting when one looks at women versus men and highly educated versus less educated. We also see the Jewish community shifting how it votes. There’s no telling how it will all balance out.
The recent major storms, Helene and Milton, hit some communities much harder than others and might affect voting patterns, particularly registration and early voting.
In some states, the usual purges of voter lists to eliminate people who moved or died, have become increasingly robust, with a record-setting 17+ million names recently purged nationwide. About a third of those were inactive yet qualified voters, more often minorities. Federal law forbids using voter inactivity as a reason to purge a name (citizens must not be penalized for not wishing to vote) yet several states purge them nevertheless. Groups have also organized on a scale not seen before to challenge voter eligibility, which encumbers legitimate voters targeted in this fashion.
The old wisdom that younger voters are liberal seems to be changing. Today’s young voters are more focused on issues, specifically the economy, immigration and global warming. Curiously, most young voters have never seen anything other than highly contentious behavior between politicians and accept it as the norm.
Intimidation of election officials has become commonplace. The nationwide upswell of death threats and physical harassment of election workers and officials has caused some to resign, hide their families, hire protection, etc. Experience and expertise may be lost. Politicization of election officials is also an issue — a few recently elected or appointed officials have stated a strong political bias. Since election procedures tend to be extremely open, evident and meticulous, it is not clear how much of a problem this represents.
There are a host of recent legal issues arising in individual states that could affect elections, such as whether or how to correct mail-in ballots that arrive with procedural mistakes or omissions; legality of drop boxes or ballot harvesting; laws limiting assistance that may be given to voters; new laws which now provide for criminal prosecution of election officials, etc.
There will likely be enormous uncertainty after the election. Canvassing the ballots and certification are complex procedures conducted at many levels: local, county, state and federal. Lawyers are gearing up for legal battles, and quite a few lawsuits have already been filed. The Supreme Court seems to be keeping its docket light in anticipation. If procedural delays are extensive enough, it may throw the election into the House, where the outcome favors Trump.
My conclusion is simple: We can’t conclude anything. Any one of the above factors could swing this close election. It may be quite a while before we know how this election will be resolved.
Dan Dyckman is a retired computer programmer with a little bit of experience in presidential polling.
